What is the FPHLM?

The Florida Public Hurricane Loss Model (FPHLM) is a hurricane catastrophe model developed by a multi-disciplinary team of experts in the fields of meteorology, wind and structural engineering, computer science, GIS, statistics, finance, and actuarial science.

The model consists of three major components: wind hazard (meteorology), vulnerability (engineering), and insured loss cost (actuarial). It has over a dozen sub-components. The computer platform is designed to accommodate future hookups of additional sub-components or enhancements.

The FPHLM estimates loss costs and probable maximum loss levels from hurricane events for personal lines and commercial lines of residential property. The losses are estimated for building, appurtenant structure, contents, and additional living expenses.

In essence the FPHLM is a complex collection of computer programs that simulate and predict how, where and when hurricanes form, their wind speeds, intensity and sizes, their tracks, how they are affected by the terrain after landfall, how the winds interact with different types of structures, how much damage they can cause to house roofs, windows, doors, and interiors, how much it will cost to rebuild the damaged parts, and how much of the loss will be paid by insurers.

A presentation on the model in PDF format is available here.